Few people in the real estate or mortgage industries are sad to see 2009 slip in to the history books. Our company actually had a record volume year but there was nothing easy about it. The changes that took place this year were a challenge to say the least.
Next year is going to have some major adjustments right out of the chute, a new Good Faith format and corresponding booklet kick off January 1st. The new GF is supposed to be simpler for the consumer, so much for that. The old version was one page and the new one is four pages. The information I received from HUD explaining this simplified version of the Good Faith Estimate is 85 pages long! But guess what, I actually like the new version. It is going to make it difficult for loan officers to bait-and-switch which has been my biggest pet peeve with the industry. Hopefully, that is going to change next year because of this form.
HUD’s Settlement Cost Booklet has grown up as well, the old version is 20 pages and the new one is 49 pages. I am not a conspiracy buff, but the paper industry sure looks guilty.
Here is some really good news; FNMA is predicting stable rates throughout the year. They predict the 30 year fixed will remain about where it is now for the first half of the year and then trend up very slightly the last half. Click Here to see the entire chart.
I expect the low rates, extension and expansion of the tax credit to have a very positive impact on the first quarter. The sharp spike we saw in September and October should continue until April.
In another report they state:
The mortgage market should turn into more of a purchase market next year. With projected increases in home sales and more moderate declines expected in home prices, purchase mortgage originations are expected to increase about 12 percent in 2010.
Click Here to read the full report.
Showing posts with label Low rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Low rates. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Monday, November 30, 2009
Time to Refinance ARMS
Thousands of Homeowners in our area still have Adjustable Rate Mortgages. Over the past two years I have often wondered why many people are keeping their ARM instead of refinancing to a fixed rate.
One of the reasons may be because their payments have decreased. There are many indexes but the two most common around here are the CMT and LIBOR. The math can be a little complicated but the historical figures are easy to document. The 1-year CMT index usually has a margin of 2.75 and caps of either 5 or 6 above the start rate. If your start rate was 5% then you are a happy camper because the current index of .37 plus 2.75 equals just a little over 3%. But do not forget, the maximum rate is either 10% or 11% over the life of the loan!!
The one-year CMT index has only been below one percent 11 months out of the past 20 years!!! Another way of saying it, 95.5% of the time over the last 20 years the index has been above 1%.
Just for kicks, I averaged this index for the month of January over the last 20 years and the result is 4.34%. If we add 2.75% (the margin) to that average it is over 7%. The conventional 15 year fixed rate is currently lower than the 4.34% average index (not including the margin) for the previous 20 Januarys.
It is fun riding the rate down on an ARM, but when rates rise, so does the index and that makes it hard to switch to a fixed rate. If you have an ARM and plan on keeping your home more than another five years, there is a very high probability it will cost an arm and a leg if you do not switch now while rates are low.
One of the reasons may be because their payments have decreased. There are many indexes but the two most common around here are the CMT and LIBOR. The math can be a little complicated but the historical figures are easy to document. The 1-year CMT index usually has a margin of 2.75 and caps of either 5 or 6 above the start rate. If your start rate was 5% then you are a happy camper because the current index of .37 plus 2.75 equals just a little over 3%. But do not forget, the maximum rate is either 10% or 11% over the life of the loan!!
The one-year CMT index has only been below one percent 11 months out of the past 20 years!!! Another way of saying it, 95.5% of the time over the last 20 years the index has been above 1%.
Just for kicks, I averaged this index for the month of January over the last 20 years and the result is 4.34%. If we add 2.75% (the margin) to that average it is over 7%. The conventional 15 year fixed rate is currently lower than the 4.34% average index (not including the margin) for the previous 20 Januarys.
It is fun riding the rate down on an ARM, but when rates rise, so does the index and that makes it hard to switch to a fixed rate. If you have an ARM and plan on keeping your home more than another five years, there is a very high probability it will cost an arm and a leg if you do not switch now while rates are low.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Rates Continue to Improve
It is a very strange market. A few days ago I commented that interest rates are nearing the bottom and that is still my position. But here we are two days before a four day weekend and rates are still improving. The markets are going to be closed Thursday and Friday and normally that alone would push rate higher.
My primary goal is to help buyers and sellers close transactions as quickly and smoothly as possible. Doing that is good for our local economy. Rates as low as they are today are creating all types of opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
Consider this, if you check out the rates on my application site you will find and FHA 30 year fixed under 5% without points. Click Here
FHA allows the seller to contribute funds for the buyer’s closing cost (payable at closing from the sale proceeds). This is a huge marketing tool that could give a seller a distinct advantage over other properties listed for sale. Consider a home selling for $200,000, a buyer could purchase with only 3.5% down or $7,000, roll the up front mortgage insurance premium into the loan amount making the loan $196,377. Based on today’s rate of 4.875% it is possible for the seller to provide a start rate of only 2.875% fixed for the first year, 3.875% for the second year and then 4.875% for the remaining 28 years!!! Cost to the seller for this example would be two points or $4,084. That is much better than a 5% reduction in the sale price, the seller would net almost $6,000 more and the buyer receives awesome payments.
STOP!! He said something other than "fixed rate" - no I didn’t. The example is a fixed rate of 4.875% for 30 years, it is temporally bought down for 2 years. And it works very well if the buyer is qualified for the payment based on the highest rate. I have closed about a kazillion of these loans over the years.
In our example above the APR is 5.843% assuming a note and payment rate of 4.875%, fixed for 30 years.
My primary goal is to help buyers and sellers close transactions as quickly and smoothly as possible. Doing that is good for our local economy. Rates as low as they are today are creating all types of opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
Consider this, if you check out the rates on my application site you will find and FHA 30 year fixed under 5% without points. Click Here
FHA allows the seller to contribute funds for the buyer’s closing cost (payable at closing from the sale proceeds). This is a huge marketing tool that could give a seller a distinct advantage over other properties listed for sale. Consider a home selling for $200,000, a buyer could purchase with only 3.5% down or $7,000, roll the up front mortgage insurance premium into the loan amount making the loan $196,377. Based on today’s rate of 4.875% it is possible for the seller to provide a start rate of only 2.875% fixed for the first year, 3.875% for the second year and then 4.875% for the remaining 28 years!!! Cost to the seller for this example would be two points or $4,084. That is much better than a 5% reduction in the sale price, the seller would net almost $6,000 more and the buyer receives awesome payments.
STOP!! He said something other than "fixed rate" - no I didn’t. The example is a fixed rate of 4.875% for 30 years, it is temporally bought down for 2 years. And it works very well if the buyer is qualified for the payment based on the highest rate. I have closed about a kazillion of these loans over the years.
In our example above the APR is 5.843% assuming a note and payment rate of 4.875%, fixed for 30 years.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Mortgage Rates Hit The Low Point
Here is the most frequent question I am asked about interest rates, "How much lower do you think they can go?" Whenever asked this question (everyday) my answer is a simple observation, "There are more numbers above the current rate than there are below it."
The most common rate mistake I have witnessed over the years is when people wait for another 1/8% improvement and then lock when the market moves up ¼% or ½% instead of down. Consider this, on a 30 year fixed rate loan of $200,000 with a rate of 5% the monthly payment is $1,073.64. An 1/8% improvement to 4.875% results in a payment of $1,058.42 which is a monthly savings of $15.22. Over the life of the loan that is a potential savings of $5,479. Not bad if the loan is not paid off early.
Now let us assume the rates move up instead of down, many people will lock on a ¼ point up tick but almost everyone that does not will when it hits ½ point higher. The same loan amount of $200,000 with a rate of 5.5% will have a monthly payment of $1,135.58 or $61.94 per month higher than the 5% rate. Over the life of the loan that is a $22,298 mistake!
Of course the majority of homebuyers will not keep the loan for 30 years. This is the reason I warn against any rule of thumb approach. It is personal, what works for your neighbor may not be the right path for you.
The most common rate mistake I have witnessed over the years is when people wait for another 1/8% improvement and then lock when the market moves up ¼% or ½% instead of down. Consider this, on a 30 year fixed rate loan of $200,000 with a rate of 5% the monthly payment is $1,073.64. An 1/8% improvement to 4.875% results in a payment of $1,058.42 which is a monthly savings of $15.22. Over the life of the loan that is a potential savings of $5,479. Not bad if the loan is not paid off early.
Now let us assume the rates move up instead of down, many people will lock on a ¼ point up tick but almost everyone that does not will when it hits ½ point higher. The same loan amount of $200,000 with a rate of 5.5% will have a monthly payment of $1,135.58 or $61.94 per month higher than the 5% rate. Over the life of the loan that is a $22,298 mistake!
Of course the majority of homebuyers will not keep the loan for 30 years. This is the reason I warn against any rule of thumb approach. It is personal, what works for your neighbor may not be the right path for you.
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