Mortgage Rates Hit The Low Point

Here is the most frequent question I am asked about interest rates, "How much lower do you think they can go?" Whenever asked this question (everyday) my answer is a simple observation, "There are more numbers above the current rate than there are below it."

The most common rate mistake I have witnessed over the years is when people wait for another 1/8% improvement and then lock when the market moves up ¼% or ½% instead of down. Consider this, on a 30 year fixed rate loan of $200,000 with a rate of 5% the monthly payment is $1,073.64. An 1/8% improvement to 4.875% results in a payment of $1,058.42 which is a monthly savings of $15.22. Over the life of the loan that is a potential savings of $5,479. Not bad if the loan is not paid off early.

Now let us assume the rates move up instead of down, many people will lock on a ¼ point up tick but almost everyone that does not will when it hits ½ point higher. The same loan amount of $200,000 with a rate of 5.5% will have a monthly payment of $1,135.58 or $61.94 per month higher than the 5% rate. Over the life of the loan that is a $22,298 mistake!

Of course the majority of homebuyers will not keep the loan for 30 years. This is the reason I warn against any rule of thumb approach. It is personal, what works for your neighbor may not be the right path for you.