Loan Applications Increase

WASHINGTON, D.C. (December 2, 2009) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 27, 2009, which was a shortened week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 29.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.1 percent from one week earlier. These results include an adjustment to account for the Thanksgiving holiday. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 30.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 34.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 0.2 percent. The four week moving average is down 2.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.8 percent from 5.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.79 percent from 4.82 percent, with points decreasing to 1.00 from 1.19 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed-rate observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009.

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Looking Back at Local Stats

The volume of real estate sold as reported by the Greater Louisville Board of Realtors over the last four years is very interesting. Comparing year-to-date dollar volume on sales reported until 11/30 of each year says a lot. The first thing I noticed is the total volume for the period was highest in 2006. Then the number decreases slightly in 2007, only a 1% decrease.

The following year, 2008, the figures dropped a whopping 23.5% compared to the same period in 2007!!! I personally felt the difference. This year versus last year is off almost exactly 6% which isn’t anything to celebrate but at least it isn’t double digit.

We compiled the report gathering monthly sales figures for the first 11 months of each year and looking at the spreadsheet it is clear that this year the direction changed in July. Prior to that the last positive month was August 2007 – two years of straight decline!

There is nothing scientific about my method and of course there are many other factors that could be considered such as a percentage of listing verses properties sold, average sale price, median sale price, etc. Or you can do what I did and look at simple monthly totals of sales figures. Last month the number was a whopping 45% increase over November 2008 and this October was 30% above last. Well now, it appears the first time homebuyer tax credit dumped about $82,000,000 (or $122M adding the average monthly loss for the rest of the year) extra into our local economy in October and November this year. Prior to October we were down $182,000,000 for the year, an average of slightly $20,000,000 per month. The last two months cut the loss almost in half.

Many thanks to Debbie Rood with RE/MAX Properties East for supplying the figures.